Monday, 7 November 2016

...a family portrait

By Edwardian times, when this photograph of an anonymous group was taken, the average size of family had already shrunk to just three children. So, to raise nine children was by then untypical. (I've assumed these are all the offspring of the seated patriarch and matriarch, as their distinctive chins would suggest.)

Today, in some developed countries - Germany is one example - the birth rate has fallen below what is considered to be the replacement ratio of 2.1 children. In Japan it is said to have reached a rather alarming 1.5, and is expected to result in a rapidly declining population over the next few decades, despite life expectancy continuing to increase, which naturally acts in the opposite direction, to shore up the level of population.

The current world population of 7.3 billion is increasing by around eighty million a year, and on some predictions will reach 9.7 billion by 2050. After that, however, some predict it will fall because of declining birth rates. Just how rapidly it falls, if at all, may depend on how successful (if that is the correct word) medical science proves at extending lifespan. The question is often put. Might future generations live typically to 200, or beyond ?


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